Threats against the initiative have been issued from the White House, while the Iranian Foreign Ministry warned the United States that any attack on its tankers and oil tankers are “illegal, dangerous and provocative” and that it reserves the right to take appropriate measures. to respond to any assault.
Meanwhile, President Nicolás Maduro has ordered the deployment of the Bolivarian Shield Caribbean I military exercises on the Orchila Island and the Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, reported that the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) would protect the vessels, no more will they touch Venezuelan waters.
However, given the current scenario, with a United States that has been left bare in its weaknesses due to the coronavirus, the difficulty that an aggression against Iran implies, which could mean a new imbalance in the already hit world energy market, it seems that Two things are going to happen: the ships will arrive without mishaps and the United States will go one step further in its decline as a hegemonic power.
Prophetic words
A little over a year ago, the internationalist Martín Pulgar, made a reflection that in the current situation now takes full effect.
“It must be remembered that the United States became an empire through control of the Caribbean. They’re considered empire through what they call the American Mediterranean. If you don’t control your close foreigner and dominate it, you are not a power, you lose weight in world geopolitics, “he said.
Thumb was clear that a situation as extraordinary as Iran and Venezuela generate such a challenge, could only mean one thing: “The end of the empire, as they see it.”
The germ of encircling Venezuela in the Caribbean was exposed in a secret meeting of the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), held on April 10, 2019.
One of the guests at the meeting was Fernando Cutz, whom journalist Max Blumenthal has called “the architect of the coup in Venezuela.”
Cutz, who belonged to the Cohen Group’s National Security Council, closely advised US Ambassador William Brownfield, on a strategy to “divide the inner circle of Nicolás Maduro,” Blumenthal reported at the time.
Cutz always had a clear strategy. In a statement published by the newspaper La Vanguardia, he maintains that in the Venezuelan case “an invasion is not possible, but something of low intensity, such as a naval blockade, perhaps would serve to get out of this situation of tables,” he said.
For Carlos Machado, political scientist and head of the situational chamber at the International Observatory of Youth and Students of Venezuela, the idea of the blockade is not only an exercise in pressure on Venezuela, but precisely to make explicit the power of the United States in the hemisphere .
“If we take it to the context of the Atlantic Ocean, it could be seen how the influence exerted by the United States from its southern coast towards the Caribbean Sea, since from the perspective of the theoretician Alfred Mahan, the North American country should preserve the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea as exclusively American areas and should also avoid by any means the domination of any other foreign power, “he says.
The imminent arrival of the Iranian ships towards Venezuela, has caused in Machado’s words that «the Government of the United States begins to pronounce in a wild way since for them their living space is being violated and at the same time they fall into the dilemma of if they enter in direct conflict with Iran? Or not, because it should be noted that war at naval level involves a lot of wear and tear and both armies are very well equipped. ”
Present arguments
Nicolás Goschenko Spokoiski, Commodore Major, President of the Organization of Rescue and Maritime Security of Aquatic Spaces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, affirms without filters that beyond the wishes, «the United States doesn’t have the power to prevent the entry of Iranian ships ».
Its logic seems to embrace the beauty of simplicity. In his opinion, the United States has always avoided waging open wars near its borders, if the ships have already passed through the Mediterranean and the Strait of Gibraltar, it will not be in the Caribbean where they are attacked.
However, if direct aggression is ruled out, it’s impossible to foresee that the deployment made by the United States and its NATO military partners cannot be used to provoke a false positive, the analyst considers.
“The European multinational naval task force continues to operate with precautions, due to preventive measures before COVID-19. It doesn’t show signs of exclusively fulfilling a combined mission, but it cannot be ruled out that they do not. Especially with Holland and France ”, he points out.
According to data provided by Nicolás Goshenko, as of Thursday, May 14, the locations of the various military forces in the Caribbean were as follows.
«The US warships, USS KANSAS CITY LCS22, were docked in the port of Colón, Panama Canal; two in the south of Cuba and two others in the south of Jamaica. The Southern Command reported that there were four ships on patrol, the shoreline surveillance ship USS DETROIT LCS7, destroyers USS PREBLE DDG88, USS LASSEN DDG82, and USS FARRAGUT DDG99. Two of them were escorts from the USS HARRY TRUMAN CVN75 aircraft carrier in the deployment to the Middle East. Regarding Dutch ships: the destroyer HMNLS ZEELAND operated with the Curacao Coast Guard, DCCG P810 JAGUAR and P811 PANTHER. In addition, open sources revealed that several flights of planes with intelligence tasks were made in the Caribbean: at 10 p.m., P3 plane OMAHA 45 and OMAHA 49, on a mission to the south of the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas. DC10 30 SPUR52 83-0079 airplane on the Nicaraguan coast ».
However, beyond showing muscle through deployment, analyst Carlos Machado believes that the United States has no choice but to opt for applying administrative and commercial sanction measures to ships. In other words, continue to exert pressure not through direct military aggression, but through unilateral coercive measures that make it even more difficult for both countries to establish trade relations freely.
Blocking Venezuela by sea is not possible if the determination of two peoples is strong and sincere enough. Therefore, as we affirmed it a year ago: «If we make a summation, the conditions so that the plans of the national security advisers of Trump and the Pentagon regarding a naval blockade are fulfilled, exist. However, for the plans to be implemented, and even more so, to be successful, many other circumstances must occur. One of them, and it is the one that the military and politicians in Washington must be spinning the most, is: are we going to prevent a Russian, Chinese, Iranian or Turkish plane or ship from entering Venezuela with food and medicine? And if the answer is positive, a last and very important question would arise. How would they do it? It is not entirely easy to see the face of the third world war, is it? ».
