American research company RAND Corp. published a report according to which North Korea in one hour without the use of chemical or nuclear weapons can kill more than 200 thousand South Koreans.
The Korean People’s Army’s about 6,000 artillery systems keep several major South Korean settlements within reach.
The report provides an estimate of the potential casualties in five attack scenarios, taking into account the approximate amount of DPRK artillery, population density in potential target areas, and assumptions about whether people are outdoors, indoors or underground at the time of the attack.
A one-hour strike using 5,700 long-range and medium-range artillery pieces along the entire length of the demilitarized zone will strike all major population centers, including Seoul and Incheon, as well as the US Army Base Camp Casey, resulting in 205,600 casualties.
Other scenarios include a five-minute attack on a large industrial facility, a one-minute attack along the DMZ, a one-minute attack on downtown Seoul, and a one-hour attack on downtown Seoul.
The minimum number of casualties will be 4,500 in the one-minute strike scenario along the DMZ.
The key takeaway from the five scenarios presented is that the main challenge for South Korea, the United States and its allies is to avoid a situation in which the DPRK feels compelled to strike at the south.
In the event of a shelling, the main task of the allies is to stop it without further escalation.